April 2024 Trade Currents Navigator: Key Developments

April 2024 Trade Currents Navigator: Key Volume Developments in February 2024

Containerized Imports

U.S. containerized imports surged 13% year-over-year in February 2024, following a 1% year-over-year decline in January. While February imports declined 4% from January, this decrease was notably lower than the typical January to February drop of 10%. The positive leap year effect contributed to a very small portion of February volumes.  

In the first two months of 2024, containerized imports grew 5% year-over-year. Volumes of solar panels, the highest growth commodity in 2023, increased slightly in the first two months of 2024. However, containerized import growth was mainly driven by a rebound in volumes of commodities that had significantly declined in 2023 – plastics, furniture, and articles of iron and steel.

Imports from China accounted for almost two thirds of the increase in total U.S. containerized imports in the first two months of 2024. The highest growth import commodity from China was plastics.

A robust 7% growth in containerized import volumes is expected in 2024 as a whole, unchanged from the projection made in March. The July-October peak-season growth forecast is also unchanged at 6% year-over-year.

Containerized Exports

Containerized export volumes increased 9% year-over-year in February 2024, a fourth consecutive month of such increases. This growth was largely a result of low export volumes in early 2023. February exports also grew 5% from January. This month-over-month rise was about one percentage point better than the typical seasonal increase in February and was due mostly to the leap year effect.  

In the first two months of 2024, containerized exports rose 6% year-over-year. Plastics in primary forms remained the top containerized export growth commodity. Exports of food industry residue and waste also continued strong growth. In addition, for several commodities with sharp volume declines in 2023, such as kraft paper, export volumes rebounded strongly.   

During the first two months of 2024, exports to Malaysia contributed most to the rise in total containerized exports, with waste paper the principal contributor to those increased exports.  

Containerized exports are projected to increase 3% in 2024, one percentage point above the March forecast. This moderate 2024 increase would be the first since 2018. Overall, containerized exports contracted almost 20% between 2018 and 2023.  

Red Sea Crisis

The Red Sea/Suez Canal crisis continues to be a risk to U.S. containerized trade. U.S. containerized trade with Middle East countries (excluding those on the Mediterranean Sea) and with South Asian countries has the highest risk of disruption due to this evolving crisis.

In the first two months of 2024, containerized imports from South Asia declined 5% year-over-year, and containerized exports to that region fell 6%. India has been the second largest destination of U.S. containerized exports since 2022 (after China), and these exports represented the most significant decline to any destination in January-February 2024.

It should be noted that the decreased monthly trade volumes just outlined may reflect delays in monthly volumes due to longer shipping distances, pushing volumes into succeeding months.

Trade Currents is a partner with AAPA in support of its Port Statistics Program to benefit ports, as well as the broader trade and logistics industry, research community, policymakers, and private institutions. Trade Currents partners include internationally recognized economists and trade analysts Dr. Walter Kemmsies, Andrei Roudoi and Scudder Smith. For questions about this article or AAPA’s work with Trade Currents, contact Shannon McLeod, AAPA Vice President of Member Services.