Trade Currents Navigator: Forecasted Increase in 2024 Container Exports, First Since 2018

The May 2024 edition of Trade Currents Navigator report presents containerized trade trends and forecasts through the first quarter of 2025 based on the March 2024 trade information released by the U.S Census Bureau in early May. The report highlights activities affecting ports’ trade volumes, including:
 
Containerized Exports
In the first quarter of 2024, containerized exports rose 6.5% year-over-year. Export volumes increased 8% year-over-year in March 2024, a fifth consecutive month of such increases.  Plastics in primary forms remained the top containerized export growth commodity. Exports of food industry residue and waste also continued strong expansion. At the same time, several commodities with sharp declines in 2023, such as kraft paper, forage, and cotton, strongly rebounded.
 
Even though growth in the first quarter of 2024 occurred over a broad range of commodities, the top six high-growth commodities analyzed in the May Navigator edition, which accounted for 27% of containerized export volume in the first quarter of 2023, accounted for 89% of the year-over-year increase in the first quarter of 2024.
 
Containerized exports are projected to increase by 3.6% in 2024. Notably this moderate increase in 2024 would be the first since 2018, as containerized exports contracted almost 20% between 2018 and 2023. Export volumes are expected to stay flat in the first half of 2025.
 
Containerized Imports
Containerized U.S. import volumes grew by a rapid 7% during the first quarter of 2024 compared to 2023 volumes. This growth includes a 10% increase in March 2024 over March 2023 following a high 13% year-over-year increase in February.
 
While containerized import growth was broad-based, it was mainly driven by a rebound in commodities whose volumes significantly declined in 2023 – plastics, furniture, and articles of iron and steel. These three commodities, whose share in total U.S. containerized volumes was just 16% in the first quarter of 2023, accounted for 56% of the year-over-year increase in total containerized imports in the first quarter of 2024.
 
A robust 7% containerized import volume recovery is expected for 2024 as a whole. The peak July-October season growth forecast is also unchanged at 6% year-over-year. However, growth rates for containerized imports are expected to slow in 2025.  
 
Trade Currents is a partner with AAPA in support of its Port Statistics Program to benefit ports, as well as the broader trade and logistics industry, research community, policymakers, and private institutions. Trade Currents partners include internationally recognized economists and trade analysts Dr. Walter Kemmsies, Andrei Roudoi, and Scudder Smith. For questions about this article or AAPA’s work with Trade Currents, contact Shannon McLeod, AAPA Vice President of Member Services.