Trade Currents Navigator: Expected 2024 Recovery in U.S. Container Trade After 2023 Declines
The June 2024 edition of Trade Currents Navigator report presents containerized trade trends and forecasts through the first quarter of 2025 based on the April 2024 trade information released by the U.S Census Bureau in early June. The report highlights activities affecting ports’ trade volumes, including:
Containerized Imports
Total containerized U.S. import volumes during January to April 2024 grew 8.9% over volumes during the same period in 2023.
The top three import commodities – plastics (primary forms and products), furniture, and articles of iron or steel accounted for almost 40% of the year-over-year increase in total containerized imports. Volumes of solar panels, the highest growth commodity in 2023, increased relatively little in the first four months of 2024.
Imports from China contributed the most to containerized import growth in the first four months of 2024, accounting for 40% of the rise in total U.S. containerized imports.
A robust 7.5% growth in containerized import volumes is expected for 2024 as a whole. However, growth rates for containerized imports are expected to slow in 2025.
Containerized Exports
In the first four months of 2024, containerized exports rose 6.1% year-over-year. Export volumes increased 6.8% year-over-year in April 2024, a sixth consecutive month of such increases.
Polyethylene in primary forms remained the top containerized export growth commodity in the first four months of 2024. The largest decline in export volumes was in waste paper.
Export volume growth in January to April 2024 was driven mostly by higher containerization rates, which added about four percentage points to total volume growth. Higher containerization rates were especially strong for metal scrap and starch manufacture residues.
In the first four months of 2024, containerized exports to Turkey grew more than exports to any other country, primarily due to increases in metal scrap and starch manufacture residue volumes.
Containerized exports are projected to increase by 3.6% in 2024. Notably this moderate increase in 2024 would be the first since 2018. Containerized exports contracted almost 20% between 2018 and 2023.
Trade Currents is a partner with AAPA in support of its Port Statistics Program to benefit ports, as well as the broader trade and logistics industry, research community, policymakers, and private institutions. Trade Currents partners include internationally recognized economists and trade analysts Dr. Walter Kemmsies, Andrei Roudoi, and Scudder Smith. For questions about this article or AAPA’s work with Trade Currents, contact Shannon McLeod, AAPA Vice President of Member Services.