Poll Reveals California Voters Increasing Understanding of the Impacts of AB 32

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A new public opinion poll indicates increasing concern by citzens regarding California’s global warming policies.

According to an AB 32 Implementation Group poll conducted by EMC Research between March 20 and 26, 2012, via a telephone survey of 1,205 likely November 2012 California voters, support for AB 32 has declined by double digits over the past three years and only a slim majority of California voters remains in support of the state’s global warming law.

Aside from the decline of those in favor of AB 32, the most important fact revealed is that California voters expressed an increasing unwillingness to pay more for energy and other essentials in order to fund greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction policies. Nearly two‐thirds of those polled oppose the California Air Resources Board’s (CARB) proposed cap-and-trade auction and less than a majority of informed voters support cap-and-trade in general as currently planned.

Since the passage of AB 32, and more recently the cap-and-trade regulation in late 2010, the public has grown more knowledgeable and, apparently, skeptical, of the Legislature’s attempt to curtail greenhouse gas. The survey by the AB 32 Implementation Group shows voters now have a much clearer understanding of the connection between the higher costs – especially regarding energy – associated with climate change regulations and their pocketbooks. When questioned about AB 32, a majority of voters said they are unwilling to pay more for goods and services for programs intended to help reduce global warming. Apparently, voters are becoming increasingly aware that it’s not just businesses that will pay higher energy costs, but that the cap-and-trade may function as a tax that will increase costs for gas, utilities, housing, food and other consumer goods. For instance, when asked how much more they would pay for a gallon of gasoline, most drew the line at 50 cents per gallon or less.

The November auction will sell allowances to companies unable to meet CARB’s GHG emissions cap so they can continue to operate legally in California. The auction, in this first year alone, is projected to raise $1 billion dollars which the Governor and Legislature hope to direct toward the budget and other needful programs.

When informed that the required emissions reductions could be achieved without an auction, voters questioned its necessity at all. Eighty-six percent of those surveyed expressed concern that a Wall Street-managed auction would be vulnerable to market manipulation reminiscent of the recent mortgage and energy crises.

While more of the public is becoming aware of the potential job loss and higher consumer costs that are associated with AB 32's implementation, most have made it clear that while they will continue to support a balanced, "mend‐it‐don’t‐end‐it" strategy for addressing global warming, but are opposed to regulations that would negatively impact jobs, consumer costs, and the economy. In the end, the majority of those polled can be summed up as follows: Most believe that the global warming issue is real and needs to be seriously addressed, but California needs a balanced strategy that cuts greenhouse gas emissions without reducing jobs, increasing energy costs, or hurting the state’s economy.

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