ELECTION RESULTS FOR CALIFORNIA - Analysis by Dominic Dimare
The "Republican" sweepdid not have an impact on California like it did in the rest of the country. In fact, the Democrats swept all of the constitutional offices as well as some legislative races. In addition, there were several propositions that passed that change the way the state handles budget matters. Below is a summary of last night's highlights.
GOVERNOR'S RACE
California voters (and Jerry Brown) can thank Meg Whitman for Democratic turnout. Up until the "housekeeper gate" scandal, Whitman and Brown were in a dead heat. But after she had proclaimed that undocumented workers shall have no path to citizenship during her first debate against Brown, her undocumented housekeeper of nine years surfaced to say that she was "thrown out like the trash" in 2009 when Whitman decided to run for governor. Whitman's popularity took a nose dive and during the weeks that followed, it was predicted that Brown would easily win by double digits.
And then she was booed at a women's conference by 14,000 audience members for not agreeing to take down negative ads against Brown after he agreed he would. This public relations nightmare for Whitman's camp, along with the undocumented worker scandal, empowered a large amount of Latino Democrats in California to head to the polls.
Jerry Brown defeated Meg Whitman by more than 10 percentage points for a decisive victory.
LIEUTENANT GOVERNOR
San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom unseated Lt. Gov. Abel Maldonado Tuesday night for lieutenant governor. The Democratic challenger maintained a lead all night over the moderate Republican incumbent in the battle for the unheralded job of lieutenant governor. The final results are showing 50 percent for Newsom and 39 percent for Maldonado.
ATTORNEY GENERAL
The race for Attorney General is still too close to call at this hour. GOP candidate Steve Cooley's lead over Democrat Kamala Harris has been steadily shrinking and votes from Los Angeles and Alameda counties are still being counted.
LEGISLATIVE RACES
Due to California's term limit law, there were about 40 new members who were elected Nov. 2. Most of these candidates were running in "safe" seats – there were only five contested general races. Those outcomes are as follows:
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AD 5 – This district leans Republican but the Democrat, Dr. Richard Pan, won this seat due to his opponent's strong conservative stance on gay marriage (Republican candidate Pugno helped write Prop 8 which passed in 2008, banning same sex marriage). The Assembly Democrats poured over $700,000 into this race.
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AD 10 – This district has always leaned Republican but in 2008, on the Obama campaign coat tails, Democrat Alyson Huber won this race by less than 250 votes. She retained her seat by beating rival Jack Sieglock.
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AD 15 – This district has always leaned Republican but similar to the AD 10, Democrat Joan Buchanan won this seat due to voter turnout for Obama. She was in a tough general election race against Abrahm Wilson. This race is too close to call and will take a couple of weeks to determine.
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AD 30 – This district can be won by either party. Sen. Florez's mother, Democrat Fran Florez, ran for a second time against a Republican and lost. Therefore, it remains a Republican seat. Portuguese farmer David Valadeo will be sworn in come December.
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SD 12 – The Republicans have held onto this seat historically, but the Democrats have continued to covet it. On paper, it appears as though this district should be represented by a Democrat. Not so, according to voters. Anthony Canella won the race against termed out Assembly Member Anna Caballero. Canella is the mayor of a small town and supported by small business owners.
In terms of the Legislature, the biggest impact has been the new faces we will see come December, but not the balance of power between the Republicans and Democrats being shifted.
PROPOSITIONS
California voters were asked to make decisions on nine propositions that would change the way the state does business. From legalizing and taxing marijuana to repealing business tax credits to changing the voting threshold for passing a state budget, the ballot did not fall short of subject areas. Below are the propositions that impact your industry the most:
Prop 19 – Failed
This proposition would have legalized marijuana by allowing people at least 21 years old to possess or cultivate marijuana for personal use. The state would be able to tax the herb, raising $3 billion in much needed revenue for California. Voters rejected this "gateway" proposition.
Prop 20 – Passed
Back in 2008, voters approved Prop 11 which called for the creation of a neutral commission made up of individuals who basically have no vested interest in the political process to draw legislative district lines. (Members of the commission cannot be related to anyone in politics which includes lobbyists, elected and appointed officials, nor could they have contributed more than $250 to any campaign.) Prop 20 expands Prop 11 by putting congressional lines under the commission's jurisdiction. This passed overwhelmingly by the voters.
Prop 23 – Failed
This proposition aimed to overturn the landmark law signed in 2006, the Global Warming Solutions Act, AB 32 which aims to reduce green house gas emissions in California by placing restrictions (and incentives) on businesses. Prop 23 would have essentially suspended AB 32 until California's unemployment rate reached 5.5 percent or less. The voters rejected this proposition.
Prop 24 – Failed
This act would have repealed corporate tax loopholes and prevent corporations from getting tax breaks that are scheduled for 2010 and 2011. These tax breaks were negotiated during the 2008 budget deal. The primary supporter of this proposition was the California Teachers Association and the CalChamber was the primary opponent.
Prop 25 – Passed
This proposition enjoyed a landslide victory on Tuesday. It changes the legislative vote requirement necessary to pass the state budget from two-thirds to a simple majority, while maintaining the two-thirds vote requirement for any tax increases. It also includes a big penalty for lawmakers failing to pass a budget on time. If the Legislature fails to pass a budget by June 15 of each year, all members of the Legislature would permanently forfeit any reimbursement for salary and expenses for every day until the Legislature passes a budget bill.
Prop 26 – Passed
This measure makes it more difficult for certain fees and taxes to be passed by raising the vote threshold from a simple majority to a 2/3 majority vote. It also tightens the definition of what is a fee and what is a tax. The new vote threshold will apply to a variety of fees including fees levied to implement environmental programs such as AB 32 the state's green house gas law.
Prop 27 – Failed
This proposition sought to overturn Prop 11. Some folks who funded this effort didn't like transferring the power to draw district boundaries from the Legislature to a neutral "jury pool." Alas, voters rejected this proposition because they want to actually see Prop 11 implemented. It will be interesting to see next year how these districts will be drawn and which incumbents will be removed from their districts when they will run for re-election in 2012. The districts must be drawn with certain provisions in mind: cities and counties must be kept whole where applicable (no more etch-a-sketch districts), similar demographics and areas of interest must be considered, and incumbent seats must not be regarded.