Highest Seasonally Adjusted Annualized Rate For New Vehicle Sales Since Cash For Clunkers According To TrueCar.com
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Car sales analysis website TrueCar.com released its November 2011 sales and incentives forecast on November 23. The forecast shows the following:
- For November 2011, new light vehicle sales in the U.S. (including fleet) is expected to be 972,712 units, up 11.5 percent from November 2010 and down 4.7 percent from October 2011 (on an unadjusted basis)
- The November 2011 forecast translates into a Seasonally Adjusted Annualized Rate (SAAR) of 13.3 million new car sales, up from 13.2 million in October 2011 and up from 12.3 million in November 2010
- Retail sales are up 12.2 percent compared to November 2010 and down 4.2 percent from October 2011
- Fleet and rental sales are expected to make up 19 percent of total industry sales in November 2011
- The industry average incentive spending per unit will be approximately $2,534 in November 2011, which represents an increase of 2.5 percent from October 2011 and down 0.5 percent from November 2010
- Used car sales are estimated to be 2,614,847, up 1.4 percent from November 2010 and down 4.6 percent from October 2011. The ratio of new to used is estimated to be 1:3 for November 2011
"We've seen six straight months of year-over-year gains for new vehicle sales, which shows positive momentum for the auto industry, " said Jesse Toprak, Vice President of Industry Trends and Insights for TrueCar.com. "There is a strong possibility that we could reach a fourteen-million SAAR next month."
"New car retail sales show strength in consumer demand, and this month will be the fourth straight month of year-over-year increases," said Kristen Andersson, Automotive Analyst for the company. "Every major automaker increased incentives this month compared to last month as they are looking to push auto sales and finish the year strong."
The company bases its forecast on actual transaction data. The transaction data based forecast is refined by other current and historical factors that impact vehicle sales, including: sales, inventory, incentives, fuel prices, and macro economic data (major stock market indexes, consumer confidence, new home starts, and CPI). TrueCar.com does not adjust for selling days in year-over-year percentage change calculations.
   
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