Report Claims U.S. Can Reduce Oil, Greenhouse Emissions 80 Percent By 2050

The United States can reduce its oil use and greenhouse gas emissions 80 percent by 2050, if the federal government is willing to continue using a combination of industry and consumer incentives — and new fees, implementing new taxes on gasoline to encourage a move to alternative fuels and technologies.

According to a new report by the National Academy of Sciences’ National Research Council, fuel efficiency in light vehicles should continue to improve, well beyond the 54.5 mile per gallon Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) target the government set for 2025.

But achieving an 80 percent reduction by 2050 would be possible only through a combination of more efficient vehicles; alternative power sources like biofuels, electricity, and hydrogen; and government policies aimed at overcoming high costs and influencing consumer choices.

In March, President Barack Obama proposed a $2 billion Energy Trust Fund, to continue development efforts aimed at fostering more cars that are powered with electricity, biofuels, and natural gas. While there are significant debates over the price tag, meeting the 2025 CAFE standard alone is generally expected to cost the auto industry about $200 billion.

However, to meet the 80 percent cut proposed by the new study, fuel efficiency standards would need to more than triple yet again. The fleet average would need to be 180 mpg to meet the goal, according to the report. It also noted that current technologies are not likely going to improve enough to hit the mark so the study also considered crosscutting technologies and key federal research and development activities applicable to fuel and vehicle technologies.

For vehicles, these include weight reduction — for example, lightweighting with strong materials like carbon fiber — and rolling and aerodynamic resistance improvements. For fuels, carbon capture and storage will be very important. In addition, the analysis took into account factors such as consumer preferences and de-carbonization of the electric power sector.

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