Edison Foundation Forecasts at Least 5 Million Battery Cars On Road By 2035

There are an estimated 90,000 plug-based vehicles on U.S. roads today and, with sales only slowly beginning to accelerate, few expect to see that climb to 1 million advanced battery vehicles, as the Obama Administration has called for. Nonetheless, battery car proponents are nothing if not optimistic, and a new white paper produced by the Edison Foundation projects that even under the most conservative scenario there will be at least five million plug-in hybrids and pure battery-electric vehicles, or BEVs, on the road by 2035.

In fact, the figure could jump as high as 30 million, the foundation forecast, in the event of a critical battery breakthrough — or other factors that change the cost/benefit equation. The mid-range scenario, the Foundation suggested, foresees plug-based vehicles making up nearly ten percent of the American passenger vehicle fleet – about twenty-five million out of an estimated 261 million light duty vehicles. It also estimates that would reduce CO2 emissions in 2035 by forty-one million metric tons. On the other hand, those battery-cars would require another 112 terawatt/hours of electricity, a figure that critics contend the U.S. energy grid will not be able to handle without major upgrades from today.

Skeptics question any forecast that sees a big jump in plug-in vehicles. Demand has so far lagged expectations. Two key products, the Nissan Leaf and the Chevrolet Volt have missed sales targets since their introduction in late 2010. On the other hand, demand has begun to increase in recent months, especially for the Leaf battery-electric vehicle since Nissan introduced a new, lower-priced version.

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