Hybrid Retention Closing The Gap Versus Sister Gas Models

According to Black Book, the penetration of hybrid and plug-in cars is growing, but ever so slightly. The primary driver today is as much related to the CAFE standards causing manufacturers to step forward with these new products, as it is related to pure consumer interest and demand.

With there now being over forty hybrid-related offerings and another dozen plug-in vehicles, the overall volume is growing. According to www.hybridcars.com the level of hybrid-only penetration has grown from 3.15 percent of the market in 2012 to a current level of 3.34 percent through April 2013, while the plug-in versions currently stand at 0.56 percent.

Comparing hybrid vs. gas retention among 2007, 2010, and 2013 models, hybrids appear to be closing the gap.

• The actual retention after three years for the hybrid cars for the 2007 models was 47.9 percent. Three years later the 2010 models have improved to a solid 52.8 percent of the original equipped retail price. When compared to the non-hybrid sister models the actual retention is slightly stronger for both the 2007 models and the 2010 models at 52.2 percent and 55 .7 percent respectively. Black Book expects this trend variance to continue with the 20 13 models currently being offered with a projected retention of50.4 percent for the hybrids and 3.6 points better for the gas only versions at 54 percent.

• The trucks haven't trended exactly as the cars. The 2007 model hybrid trucks three-year end of term retention of 51 percent compares to the sister gas only trucks of 48.4 percent. For the 2010 models, with more players and more overall volume have the hybrids actually retaining a lower percentage of equipped retail than the gas only versions: 56.1 percent for hybrids to 59.5 percent for the gas only models. Black Book expects 2013 model-year hybrid truck retention at 53.6 percent, while sister gas models will be at a very narrow difference of 54 percent.

A statistical retention breakdown with emphasis on hybrid-popular car and truck segments
2007	Hybrid	Gas
Cars	47.9 percent	52.2 percent
Trucks	51.0 percent	48.4 percent
Compact Crossovers	49.9 percent	45.5 percent
Midsize Crossovers	57.0 percent	51.3 percent
Fullsize Pickups	46.2 percent	48.4 percent