Prediction Claims Tesla Will Create Driverless Car Fleets

A top automotive analyst predicts in a report on August 17 that Tesla Motors will embrace a future involving fleets of shared driverless cars and has raised his price target to $465 a share on the stock, up from the current $280.

Analyst Adam Jonas says Tesla has such a lead on connected, electric cars compared to rivals that it is likely to create a new division with a name like Tesla Mobility. "We would be surprised if Tesla did not share formalized business plans on shared mobility within the next 12 to 18 months," he writes in a note to investors. "This could potentially be followed by commercial introduction in 2018."

Jonas says the launch of a "Tesla Mobility 1.0 urban transport PODS (Position on Demand Service)" would come after introduction of the electric car maker's Model 3 in 2017, the car that is aimed at having a lower cost and wider appeal. At present, Tesla makes only the Model S luxury electric sedan, with a new crossover, the Model X, due by the end of the year.

He says the new division is likely because it would be in keeping with Tesla's sustainability message. The Palo Alto, CA-based electric car company is also best positioned to embrace a future of driverless cars that serve multiple customers.

Jonas says a more compelling case can be made for electric vehicles when they are used in a shared, app-based environment. Consumers wouldn't have to buy expensive cars that languish in their home or work garages all day. They would simply call for a driverless car when they need one, which would make high use of the cars and thus would be a more efficient system.

Tesla's leadership in the precursors to driverless technology will become apparent when the Model X crossover starts deliveries. It will have a sensors and software that Jonas says "could be a new industry standard for driver-replacement technologies that could eventually find their way into high-utilization shared mobility models."

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