Diesel Under Threat After VW Scandal

Things aren't looking good for diesel. It faces tougher regulations, pressure from environmental lobbyists, and smog-filled city experiments. Plus, the Volkswagen scandal is easily the biggest auto industry scandal in years thanks to its deceit of governmental regulations, customers, dealers, and partners, not to mention the sheer number of vehicles involved. Add to that the high cost of components required to make modern turbo-diesels comply with regulations, (especially for price-sensitive car segments where those costs cannot easily be spread over a larger profit margin per unit), and diesel faces more potential hurdles than ever.

Europe recently adopted much more restrictive NOx emissions regulations for passenger cars. As of last fall, the European NOx emissions specification is 0.08 g/km; the prior limit was 0.18 g/km—56 percent more restrictive in plain language. This makes diesels a far harder technical challenge, virtually requiring some sort of exhaust after-treatment system like selective catalytic reduction ("SCR" or urea injection). This is a costly addition to a passenger car, especially to smaller and cheaper cars like many of VW's products.

Meanwhile, despite more attention and stricter emissions regulations, some cities around the world—like England's Bristol, Brazil's Sao Paulo, and Belgium's Brussels—have started experimenting with car-free days in city centers. European cities are beginning to face EU fines for air quality violations, forcing them to find ways of reducing smog elements like NOx.

Paris saw an alarming spike in air pollution this past March, surpassing Beijing to become—temporarily—the most polluted city in the world, according to environmentalists. In tangible terms, landmarks like the Arc de Triomphe and the Eiffel Tower grew invisible from a short distance. Particulate levels were 1.5 times higher in 2014 than the city's target. Paris responded initially by banning diesel vehicles and half its overall car volume on alternate days. The city also launched a bike-sharing service, Vélib, with a similar service promoting EVs.

Paris decided to institute a car-free day on Sunday, September 27, where cars were banned from the city's central areas. The only exceptions were vehicles belonging to residents, buses, and taxis, all of which were restricted to twelve mph (20 kph) to see if there would be a difference in air quality.

While no hard numbers yet exist, Paris' experiment was shocking. People on city streets reveled in how clear and smog-free—and quiet—their Sunday was. With their passenger-car diesel fleet at roughly eighty percent, the French public is going to have a real challenge if France's larger plan of banning diesels entirely for light-duty transportation becomes reality.

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