J.D. Power and Associates Reports: Future Global Market Demand For Hybrid And Battery Electric Vehicles May Be Over-Hyped; Wild Card Is China

Combined global sales of hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs) and battery electric vehicles (BEVs) are expected to total 5.2 million units in 2020, or just 7.3 percent of the 70.9 million passenger vehicles forecasted to be sold worldwide by that year, according to a report issued by J.D. Power and Associates. For comparison, global HEV and BEV sales in 2010 are forecasted to total 954,500 vehicles, or 2.2 percent of the 44.7 million vehicles projected to be sold through the end of 2010.

The report, "Drive Green 2020: More Hope than Reality," considers various factors affecting the future potential for "green" vehicles in the world's largest automotive markets. These factors include market trends, regulatory environment, consumer sentiment, and technology development in these markets.

According to the report, it will be difficult to convince large numbers of consumers to switch from conventionally powered passenger vehicles to HEVs and BEVs. A consumer migration to alternative powertrain technologies will most likely require either one of the following scenarios, or some combination of these scenarios:

A significant increase in the global price of petroleum-based fuels by 2020.
A substantial breakthrough in green technologies that would reduce costs and improve consumer confidence.
A coordinated government policy to encourage consumers to purchase these vehicles.

Based on currently available information, none of these scenarios are believed to be likely during the next 10 years.

"While considerable interest exists among governments, media and environmentalists in promoting HEVs and BEVs, consumers will ultimately decide whether these vehicles are commercially successful or not," said John Humphrey, Senior Vice President of Automotive Operations at J.D. Power and Associates. "Based on our research of consumer attitudes toward these technologies — and barring significant changes to public policy, including tax incentives and higher fuel economy standards — we don't anticipate a mass migration to green vehicles in the coming decade."