Year-On-Year U.S. Gasoline Use Still Rising
Gasoline deliveries in the U.S. during September 2016 reached a new record high (for the month), with roughly 9.4 million barrels being delivered every day of the month, according to new figures from API. That represents a 1.1 percent year-on-year rise as compared to September 2015.
These figures refer to total motor gasoline deliveries, which are used in the industry as a measure of consumer demand. Altogether, gasoline deliveries during September & Q3 2016 were up from September 2015 & Q3 2015. Year-to-date figures were also up in 2016. The September figures were down, though, from August 2016 — which is to be expected, since people tend to vacation more in August.
How should one take this? Even as all-electric vehicles and plug-in hybrids have begun to hit the mainstream consumer consciousness, gasoline demand has been slowing rising. While abrupt market changes are certainly a possibility in the 10–20 year time range, for the time being, gasoline demand is likely to rise. In the short term, the only things that seem likely to reverse the trend are another recession (or a deepening of the "current one," depending on how you look at things) or a large surge in gas prices.
The average working lifespan of a personal vehicle in the U.S. is now somewhere around 12 years. If a substantial replacement of the world’s internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicle fleet is to occur rapidly enough to seriously curtail associated emissions, then government action will very likely be a requirement.
NAFA Fleet Management Association
http://www.nafa.org/