COVID: What 2021 Might Hold

Our industry has had an eventful year; we have risen to the challenges posed by COVID and shown that we are essential. As 2020 ends, our industry has optimism for 2021 but also uncertainty about what the next 12 months could bring. With travel, school, sports and so many other activities disrupted, NPMA wanted to share a draft timeline from Politico.com of what 2021 could bring month by month.

Of course, much could change and in the absence of a federal vaccine distribution plan, some states may move faster than others or prioritize different groups for inoculation. We also will likely continue to see a patchwork of social distancing measures well into 2021 as caseloads fluctuate.

NPMA continues to advocate for COVID relief measures with policymakers but looks forward to seeing everyone in person next year. While NPMA did not create this timeline, we think it is an interesting look at what could happen in 2021.

FROM POLITICO.COM

THE END OF THE BEGINNING — The first phase of the global pandemic will be over by New Year’s Eve. It’s looking increasingly likely that the FDA will issue emergency use authorizations of Pfizer’s and Moderna’s Covid vaccines after meetings scheduled for Dec. 10 and Dec. 17. Operation Warp Speed officials say they’re ready to start vaccinating health care workers within a day or two of the FDA’s official nod.

That’s when the second phase of the global pandemic will start: the year of transition. It took more than two decades after the polio vaccine was approved before the United States eradicated the disease. Covid-19 may be with us in some form or another for years, even if vaccines are very effective and the rollout is perfectly smooth.

Still, 2021 should be a year of small victories, each one inching us back toward pre-pandemic life. Nightly spoke with two vaccine experts, Mark Slifka at the Oregon National Primate Research Center and Peter Hotez at the Baylor College of Medicine, to get their take on how the year may play out.

January: The Moderna and Pfizer vaccines each require two doses, taken three or four weeks apart. The first dose isn’t likely to confer immunity, so the first batch of health care workers won’t be fully vaccinated until early next year
— Signs of normalcy: None. Holiday gatherings from December and early January will continue to accelerate the outbreak, leading to elevated hospitalizations and deaths.

February: Vaccine supplies will still be limited. The CDC recommended today that long-term care residents should be prioritized along with health care workers.
— Signs of normalcy : The Super Bowl will likely continue as scheduled on Feb. 7 in Tampa, but the Biden administration and state health officials will probably warn people against throwing watch parties at their homes.

March: States are charged with distributing still-limited supplies of the vaccines and determining which adults get high priority. Those over the age of 65 are expected to be at the top of the list. More data about the safety and efficacy of vaccines should be available from people who got the vaccine in December and January, including whether either vaccine causes major side effects in adults, Slifka said.
— Signs of normalcy: March Madness, the college basketball tournament that was canceled in 2020, will get under way in a bubble in Indianapolis. But most of us will be watching Eddie Murphy in Coming 2 America at home rather than venturing out to theaters.

April: By now two additional vaccine candidates, from AstraZeneca and Johnson & Johnson, could get emergency use authorization from the FDA. Public health experts also expect to see additional therapies get EUA from the FDA, further reducing Covid deaths.
— Signs of normalcy: Major League Baseball has scheduled opening day for April 1, and the season could go smoothly if the vaccine proves to be effective, Hotez said.

May: Anthony Fauci has said that most adult Americans could get a Covid vaccine by this month. States should have worked out distribution problems by now, though there are risks that a rollout could be botched. A bad batch of the polio vaccine ended up paralyzing about 200 kids and killing 10 in 1955.
— Signs of normalcy: High school and college graduations could be back on — though they will still be socially distanced and masked.

June, July and August: We should start to learn how well vaccines work to not just keep people from getting Covid, but also whether they keep people from spreading Covid.
— Signs of normalcy: The paralyzing terror of not knowing whether you or a family member will end up in an intensive care unit from a shopping trip or a dinner party will start to lift. Air travel will pick up.

September: By next fall, drugmakers will have a year of safety data on Covid vaccinations. This data will help answer a key question: whether a vaccine confers longer-term immunity. With several companies producing vaccines, there’ll also be more information on which vaccines are most effective for different groups such as the elderly, those with certain conditions and kids.
— Signs of normalcy: Fauci has said that NFL stadiums could be full by next September.

October: Happy Halloween? Goldman Sachs analysts are predicting that vaccinations will be available to kids by next October. Right now drug companies have not yet tested Covid vaccines on children under the age of 12 (or pregnant women), saying they want to wait until there’s more safety data available for adults.
— Signs of normalcy: Schools will close because of snow storms and not Covid outbreaks and kids can go trick or treating.

November and December: If everything goes as planned — the vaccines are safe, they provide lasting immunity, there are enough doses and they get distributed properly — the second phase of the global pandemic will end a year from now. Yet even in 2022, Covid won’t be a distant memory. Fauci has said that vaccines won’t completely eradicate the virus. People in high-risk groups might still wear masks or avoid crowded gatherings.
— Signs of normalcy: Twenty-pound turkeys will sell out at Thanksgiving and wine — and regret — will flow at company holiday parties.