PCA Chief Economist Predicts More Resilient U.S. Economy than Expected in Near Term

The top economist in the cement, concrete and construction industries predicts a stronger U.S. economy during the first half of this year than was previously expected but believes there will likely be a slowdown in economic growth starting this summer. Portland Cement Association’s (PCA) Chief Economist and Senior Vice President of Market Intelligence Ed Sullivan made the comments earlier this month at the World of Concrete trade show in Las Vegas.

Mr. Sullivan explained that with the economy showing more near-term resilience, the Federal Reserve might be more aggressive with rate hikes. Given the timing lags associated with Fed actions, the economic fundamentals will eventually weaken. A recession, characterized by unemployment of 6%, is unlikely.
Mr. Sullivan also predicted that construction in the private sector - which was down in 2022 - is expected to take another tumble in 2023. However, strong order books may cushion cement consumption decline until the second half of this year.

In terms of new construction via the bipartisan infrastructure legistation, Mr. Sullivan said it will likely be softer than many are expecting this year. Inflation, state construction spending reductions and typical spending patterns associated with allocations were cited as principal reasons.

Click here to access Mr. Sullivan’s presentation. For more information, contact PCA's Remi Braden at rbraden@cement.org.