MIT has released a research brief on modeling drying shrinkage. A semi-analytical model of drying shrinkage evaluates the pore size distribution in cement paste based on a water sorption isotherm (wetting and drying). Based on the pore size and water in different pores, the model considers pressures and surface tension in impacting drying shrinkage. While a good corelation to experimental observation exists, work continues to improve the model’s predictions.