PCA Economist Forecasts 2025 Outlook for Cement, Concrete Industries

Ed Sullivan, the chief economist and senior vice president of market intelligence for the Portland Cement Association (PCA), says the Federal Reserve’s recent move to lower interest rates coupled with easing inflation signals a significant retreat in interest rate levels by the end of next year, all to the benefit of construction activity. Sullivan made his comments at PCA’s annual Fall Meeting held last week in Aurora, CO. Highlights of Sullivan's address included:

• It will take time for the impact of the Fed’s policy pivot to materialize in the economy and construction. Near term, construction activity is expected to be burdened by oppressively high interest rates. As more rate cuts transpire, construction loan rates are expected to decline, spurring new life into the construction market. This is expected to begin by mid-2025.
• Mortgage interest rates are expected to decline to 5.5% by mid-2025 and to 5.0% by year-end 2025. This is likely to usher in favorable home affordability and a surge in consumer demand.
• Lower rates will also usher in a significant increase in the supply of existing homes on the market. This is expected to more than offset the increase in demand and lead to a reduction in new and existing home prices. This further enhances affordability.
• Nonresidential construction will also benefit from lower interest rates. Unfortunately, it will take time to improve occupancy rates and a higher Net Operating Income. These will come as the economy gains momentum next year. Given this, nonresidential is not expected to see recovery until 2026.
• Public construction activity is expected to benefit from increased spending associated with the bipartisan infrastructure law.

For more information, contact PCA's Remi Braden at rbraden@cement.org or 202-235-4163.

National Ready Mixed Concrete Association