|
 Print this article | Send to Colleague
On the packaging side, according to figures from the Fibre Box Association, October box shipments fell 7.9% y/y on an actual week basis and 3.7% on an "average week" basis, Wilde notes. On a blended basis, the decline is about 5.8% y/y, noticeably better than the YTD blended decline of 9.0% y/y, he adds. "However, this was driven by the easier comps that we are starting to overlap. October '08 was down 8.6% y/y, compared with Jan-Oct '08 shipments down just 2.7% y/y. This lack of demand improvement is disappointing in the face of the impressive rebound in the ISM index over the last several months. Over time, we've found the ISM index to be a good indicator of box volumes. The ISM index has improved from a low of 32.9 in Dec '08 to 55.7 in October, perhaps the sharpest rise in the past 20 years. Given the historical correlation, we expect to see meaningful improvement in box volumes, but we have not seen it yet," Wilde reports.
|
|
