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U.S. South pine sawtimber prices are plummeting, which means that turbulent times could soon be over for timber sellers. A new stumpage price forecast published by Forisk, Athens, Ga., USA, signals climbing prices for pine sawtimber in the U.S. South beginning this year. Despite positive indications for the U.S. South as a region, results vary across the 11 states covered in Forisk's models. For example, between 2010 and 2011, Georgia pine sawtimber prices rebound 17% while prices in North Carolina increase less than 1% over the same time frame, according to the ForiskFORECAST.

"The key is understanding the local, state-specific relationship (the elasticity) between wood demand and prices," explains Dr. Tim Sydor, Forisk's forest economist. "Pine sawtimber demand declined 32.6% South-wide between 2006 and 2009. Yet these declines varied by state. In the next few years, as lumber demand recovers, our historic wood demand and price analysis suggests a strong stumpage price recovery in several Southern states, while others will take longer to respond."

Brooks Mendell, President of Forisk, notes that "timber markets are uniquely local. Our clients are less concerned about national prices, and directly focused on their local options. South Georgia differs from North Alabama, which differs from East Texas. Our basin studies, workshops, and the ForiskFORECAST focus on the idea that successful investments in forestry or wood-using facilities rely on detailed knowledge of localized markets."

The ForiskFORECAST-Pine Sawtimber predicts annual pine sawtimber stumpage prices across the U.S. South through 2020. It is available as an interactive Excel model or as individual forecasts for 11 states. More information is available on the Forisk website.