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A containerboard price hike is possibly mounting for this spring, according to Mark Wilde, senior analyst with Deutsche Bank (see Published Price Increases below for reported price increase). If it sticks, the spring price hike would be the second of the year (following a $50 -$70 per ton increase in January). A second increase of as much as $80/ton is being mentioned, Wilde says, with April as the targeted date. Fiber costs, both pulpwood and wastepaper, are surging. Also, inventories remain lean while offshore markets are rebounding nicely, which collectively suggests that the prospects are good, Wilde explains. "The biggest question will center on the relatively anemic rebound in domestic corrugated box volumes and the ability to push through another box hike. Will consumer goods companies 'accept' another rapid-fire price hike? Moreover, will the integrated containerboard/corrugated box producers show the fortitude to make the hike stick at the box level?" Wilde ponders. "Most of our sources suggest that the first round box price hike (following in the wake of the January containerboard hike) is proving more of a battle than we would have expected. Historically, if integrated producers can't raise downstream box prices, it is hard to make a containerboard hike stick," he adds.
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