N.A. Log Exports to China Fall by 17% in 2012, but Turn-Around Expected This Year

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China's hunger for wood was less acute in 2012 than the previous year, according to the Wood Resource Quarterly (WRQ), Seattle, Wash., USA. In particular, importation of softwood logs fell substantially from the record levels of 2011. Importation of lumber was also lower in 2012, but the decline was much less than that of logs. The biggest change in wood imports between 2011 and 2012 was the sharp decline of Russian logs crossing the Chinese border and the reduced lumber volumes from the U.S. lumber entering Chinese ports.

North America is a major supplier of softwood products to China, with the market share for logs and lumber in January 2013 accounting for 26% and 53%, respectively. In 2012, Canada and the U.S. exported logs and lumber valued at 2.1 billion dollars, which was down 17% from 2011. Despite the decline in shipments last year, it was still the second highest level on record and more than four times the level just three years earlier, WRQ notes.

Sawmills in British Columbia have become the largest suppliers of lumber to China in recent years, surpassing Russia in 2010. The value of Canadian shipments was about $1.1 billion in both 2011 and 2012, and the value is likely to be higher in 2013. Just five years ago, less than $100 million worth of lumber was shipped to China. This new market has become increasingly important for many sawmills in Western Canada, which historically have shipped most of their production to the U.S. market. Five years ago, about 10% of the export volumes from the province were destined for China. This share had gone up to 32% in 2012. The still unanswered question is how sawmills in this region will choose to allocate their production in the coming years when lumber demand is expected to increase in the U.S., WRQ reports. 

Log exports from the Western U.S. to China have jumped ten-fold the past five years, which has had a major impact on the coastal log market in the states of Washington and Oregon. Despite relatively low production levels in the industry the past five years, saw log prices in the fourth quarter of 2012 were about 60% higher than in 2009, according to the North American Wood Fiber Review. This development coincides with the period when log exports to China expanded rapidly. Although lumber price increases are good news for sawmills in the Western states during 2012 and early 2013, the bad news is that the log prices are increasing as well.