Global Sawlog Prices Continue Decline

 

Sawlog prices fell again in the second quarter of this year in most of the 19 regions worldwide that are part of the Global Sawlog Price Index (GSPI). The only regions where prices increased were in Northwest Russia and the Interior of British Columbia. The GSPI fell 1.5% to $72.63/m3 in the second quarter. This Index is currently at its lowest level since 2009, and is down 20% from its all-time high four years ago.

 

Over the past year, sawlog prices have fallen the most in Central European, Eastern European, and the Nordic countries (in ranking order), predominantly as a result of a weakening euro. Domestic log prices in U.S. dollar terms have also declined in Latin America and Oceania, but to a lesser degree.

 

While log prices have fallen between 15% and 20% in most regions of the world the past 12 months, average prices were down only 7% in North America, where healthy U.S. domestic lumber demand and respectable log export volumes from both the U.S. and Canada kept consumption of logs high in 2014 and 2015, according to Wood Resource Quarterly, Seattle, Wash., USA.

 

The west coast of the U.S., British Columbia, and New Zealand have expanded log and lumber exports to China quite substantially from 2010 to 2014, and these are also the regions that had the highest sawlog prices in early 2015, compared with their respective 10-year averages. In the northwestern U.S., there has been a steady increase in log costs since 2009, and prices in 2014 were higher than their 10-year averages. However, during the first six months of 2015, log exports to Asia have been substantially lower than during the same period in 2014. Since last summer, shipments to China have plummeted by 45% to their lowest levels since early 2012. Two major factors have been influencing the decline in log imports to China in late 2014 and early 2015: there is decreased demand for wood in China, and high log inventories within China itself.

 

The reduced demand for U.S. logs in Asia has resulted in declining sawlog prices in the U.S. Northwest. In the second quarter of this year, average prices for Douglas fir and hemlock were at their lowest levels since 2012.