Global Sawlog Prices Continue Downward Trend

Global sawlog prices fell in the 3Q/16 after a temporary increase in the 2Q/16 following an almost two-year-long downward trend. The Global Sawlog Price Index (GSPI) has fallen by 14.3% in two years and is currently almost 12% below the 10-year average and 21% down from the all-time high in the second quarter of 2011, reports the Wood Resource Quarterly (WRQ), Seattle, Wash., USA.

 

The biggest price declines quarter-over-quarter occurred in British Colombia, Eastern Canada, Poland, and Sweden. Although most key lumber-producing countries experienced lower log costs in the 3Q/16, there were also several regions where prices increased in U.S. dollar terms, including Brazil, Russia, Norway, and New Zealand. The major reason for higher prices in this group of countries has been the strengthening of currencies relative to the U.S. dollar. In the local currencies, log price adjustments have been minimal in 2016.

 

During the past two years, sawlog prices have fallen the least (just over 5%) in North America compared with Latin America and Oceania where prices were down by about 14%, and in Europe where prices currently are more than 20% below 2014 prices, according to the WRQ. The biggest price declines on the European continent have been in Central Europe.

 

Regional sawlog prices around the world have generally converged during 2015 and 2016, with prices in high-cost regions having declined more than prices in low-cost regions. Despite these developments, price discrepancies between the large lumber-producing regions of the world have been higher in 2016 than they were back in 2000-2005.

 

Note: The GSPI Price Index is a volume-weighted price index comprised of average sawlog prices in 20 of the largest sawlog-consuming regions of the world. The Index tracks prices from the 1Q/95 to the current quarter and is published each quarter in the WRQ. More information is available online.