Even as Pulpwood Supply Outpaces Paper Demand, Costs Stay High for Some

The world's paper usage rates have been falling for decades, with no end in sight—yet the production of wood pulp keeps rising, especially in emerging markets. These long-term trends should hold pulp prices down, but they're still climbing in some countries. These region-specific price drivers are explored in detail by the World Pulpwood Study: Adapting to Emerging Competition and Slowing Growth in Paper Demand, a new report from RISI, Boston, Mass., USA.

"During the next decade, growing pulp output will put downward pressure on prices, but not in every country," said Peter Barynin, RISI principal economist for Timber and author of the World Pulpwood Study. "Exchange rates, shipping costs, and national trade policies will raise costs in some of the most important global markets."

Massive forest plantations in South America and Asia will be maturing in coming years, and their output will feed new pulp mills in these regions. This could put European and North American producers at a disadvantage. Combined with the decline in paper usage caused mainly by electronic media, there is potential for upheaval throughout the industry—but with greater impact on some countries than others.

"We believe there is still profitable growth to be found, if the industry looks more deeply at the conditions in each major market," said Barynin. 

The World Pulpwood Study: Adapting to Emerging Competition and Slowing Growth in Paper Demand combines a global perspective with detailed analysis of country- and region-specific market conditions. It provides a 10-year forecast for pulpwood demand, supply, and prices for every major producing country, plus details on end-use markets, production, exchange rates, and trade. 

More information is available online.