Shipments of uncoated free sheet, the largest grade, fell 9.3% y/y in October and are off 13.1% YTD. Volumes have been roughly flat sequentially for the last several months, according to Wilde. In coated papers, the volume decline last winter and spring were even more severe than in UFS, but the volume improvement in recent months has been more noticeable. Coated free sheet shipments fell 7.1% y/y in October and are off 22.5% YTD. Coated mechanical shipments fell 4.3% y/y in October and are off 24.2% YTD. Uncoated groundwood is the smallest and most volatile grade, but probably the one with the best long-term prospects, as it takes share from other grades. As in coated papers, uncoated groundwood shipments are starting to rebound, after falling sharply in the first half of the year. "Shipments fell 17.1% y/y in October (oddly much more than recent months) and are off 22.8% YTD," according to Wilde.

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