Some analysts are predicting modest gains of only $30 - $40/metric ton (3% - 5% increase), Wilde says. On the other extreme, some contacts in the pulp brokerage community are pointing to April list price increases of as much as $80 - $100/metric ton (9% - 11% increase). "Our own expectation is for April hikes in the $60/metric ton range," Wilde adds.
The impact of the Chilean earthquake on the global pulp market is being exacerbated by a Finnish dockworkers strike (see items in the Industry News section of this issue of OTW), as well as tight wood supplies in the southern U.S., according to Wilde. When coupled with lean pulp and paper inventories in many parts of the world as well as signs of a global economic recovery, this suggests that the near-term impact on pulp (and paper) prices could be substantial, Wilde says, adding that "we think pulp prices are almost certain to breach $1,000/metric ton for the first time in history and we believe the impact may be felt for as much as six months. With pulp supplies tight and prices at record levels, we think global paper prices must rise."
TAPPI
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