Exports Keep Newsprint in Balance

September newsprint data suggests that exports are playing an important role in keeping supply/demand in balance, Wilde notes. YTD thru September, domestic shipments fell 5.5% y/y while overall shipments were +9.1% y/y, driven by a 60.9% jump in exports to markets such as Latin America, China, and India. The continued slide in the U.S dollar has made exports increasingly attractive, Wilde says. In October, newsprint list prices on the West Coast rose $10/metric ton to $620/metric ton in October. With Eastern list prices flat, the East/West gap has now narrowed to $20/metric ton. West coast producers have now implemented $30/metric ton of the $40/metric ton price increase announced. Recent results by Gannett, New York Times, and McClatchy suggest that print advertising demand remains weak, down mid-single digits y/y (after a weak 3Q09), according to Wilde.

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