U.S. Coated Free Sheet Shipments Benefit from Anti-Dumping Duties

Preliminary CFS October shipments were +3.5% y/y (YTD +19.3% y/y), according to Wilde. "This increase is the weakest we've seen since December 2009, mostly due to tougher y/y comps," he says, noting that CFS shipments are likely benefiting from anti-dumping duties recently placed on Asian imports. This could boost North American pricing and exacerbate a serious oversupply situation in Asia, he adds, pointing out that "on our recent tour of China, we saw first-hand evidence of bulging CFS inventories." If the Europeans move ahead with similar anti-dumping cases, Wilde warns, it could force serious restructuring in Asian supply. In North America, the tenor of the CFS market has improved. List prices in October were flat with September levels. In September, list prices for most grades were up $10 - $25/ton. Verso, NewPage, Sappi NA, and Appleton have all announced $40 - $60/ton price increases. NewPage also announced a $40/ton price increase on some of its coated paper grades.

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