For 2012, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Texas are the only states with forecasted sawtimber stumpage prices exceeding $27/ton. Alternately, delivered prices for Douglas-fir and hemlock in Oregon and Washington look to increase 6% and 4.9% in 2012, thanks to continued exports to China.
Forisk's research emphasizes the critical importance of assessing timber prices locally. "Our team tracks 3,191 wood-using facilities in the U.S. This includes every open, closed, and idled forest industry mill, as well as every operating and announced wood bioenergy project," notes Dr. Tim Sydor, Forisk's director of economic analysis and forecasting.
In 2010, Forisk's pine sawtimber forecast was within 4% of actual prices, and within $1.00 per ton at the state level. "The key is understanding the localized relationship – the elasticity – between wood demand and prices. We consistently track and re-estimate the price-demand relationships as they change at the market level," Dr. Sydor says.
The ForiskFORECAST predicts pine sawtimber and pulpwood stumpage prices by state in the South and delivered log prices in the Pacific Northwest through 2020. In addition, Forisk provides U.S.-wide mill databases and GIS shapefiles for internal analysis and map-making. More information is available online (click Stumpage Price Forecasts).
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