Prices for Eucalyptus pulpwood traded in the open market are high not only from a historical perspective, but also compared with many other regions around the world, WRQ notes. Only pulp mills in Europe and Australia had higher hardwood fiber costs than Brazil in late 2011, while North America, Chile, Russia, and Indonesia all had lower hardwood log prices than the world's largest market pulp exporter.
Wood fiber cost is by far the most important cost component for Brazilian pulp mills, more so than for most other pulp mills in the world, WRQ says. In the fourth quarter, wood costs accounted for as much as 72% of the total cash costs in Brazil, according to Fisher International. This is substantially higher than the global average of 61%.
For the sawmilling industry in Brazil, 2011 was a better year than the previous year, with higher demand both from their domestic market and from abroad. Lumber exports in 2011 were up 6% to their highest levels in three years, with shipments to China, Saudi Arabia, Mexico, and Morocco increasing the most. As a result of the higher lumber production, sawlog prices have trended upward for almost three years, reaching an all-time high in the 2Q/11, according to WRQ.
During the second half of 2011, log prices fell in U.S. dollar terms, while there were only small price adjustments in the Brazilian Real terms. Domestic demand for lumber is expected to continue to improve in 2012 with the construction sector gearing up for the World Cup in soccer (2014) and the Olympic Games (2016). If the U.S. dollar continues to strengthen against the Brazilian Real, exports may also contribute to a better year for the Brazilian lumber industry than that of the past two years. This development is likely to put upward pressure on sawlog prices in the coming year, WRQ advises.
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