New Study Explores Future Suppliers of Softwood to U.S. Markets

A new multi-client study by ForestEdge LLC, Alexandria, Va., USA, and Wood Resources International LLC, Bothell, Wash., will be released tomorrow, March 16, 2018. The purpose of this study was to evaluate how future U.S demand for softwood lumber will be met as the supply dynamics of North America change and off-shore supply and production economics evolve over the next decade.

Demand—Projected demand for softwood lumber in the U.S. for the period 2017-2030. Future lumber consumption is based on projections of housing starts, repair and remodeling expenditures, and related softwood lumber consumption, and the evolution of other demand sectors.
Supply—Projected sources of softwood lumber Supply 2016-2030. Includes detailed profiles of key wood lumber production regions including New Zealand, Chile, Brazil, Sweden, Eastern Canada, Western Canada, the U.S. Northwest and the U.S.South. Mini-profiles evaluating softwood timber resources, delivered log prices, lumber trade and softwood lumber export potential to the US market of Germany, Finland, Latvia, and Western Russia are also provided.
Supply Curve Analysis. The study constructs a U.S. softwood lumber supply curve for 2016 using actual supply statistics and estimated delivered softwood lumber costs for the key supplying regions. The study then evaluates how supply could change under alternative demand scenarios, based on regional projections of log costs, softwood lumber production, and likely U.S. exports, to identify the most likely suppliers to the U.S. market in 2025 and 2030.
Conclusions and Sensitivities. In addition to reporting results for various demand scenarios, the study considers sensitivities based on investment capital and exchange rates, and offers insight into the implications of the changing