Big changes are coming to health care over the next decade, with technology innovation supporting significant shifts that will necessitate operational changes for providers.
Technology will continue to get faster, cheaper and smarter. So-called “ultra intelligence” artificial intelligence (AI) supercomputers this year are expected to possess four times more parametric capacity than the human brain and be nearly 10 times faster in the number of computations that can be run every second.
As for how the field will be impacted by the rapidly evolving tech landscape, the consultancy Oliver Wyman recently published an analysis as a follow-up to its Designing for 2035 report.
Among the authors’ projections:
The overall increase in information on outcomes and practice patterns, along with more effective dissemination of data, will enable faster and more accurate treatment decisions. Current struggles with interoperability will be overcome, and data will follow patients in a more efficient manner.
Some current technological advances already are providing administrative support. Further improvements will come from modifying ChatGPT-like solutions for creating more efficiencies of back-office and other administrative functions. Additionally, AI will support and evolve work completed by nurses, case managers and social workers. Smart implementation of AI systems has the potential to fully automate some tasks, including prior authorizations, care planning and consultations triggered by assessments.
Keep an eye on robotic medication administration. These systems can identify routine drugs that serve select patients. While these advances significantly will improve everyday efficiency, the rate of adoption will be limited by cost and resource shortages, the report notes. Once this barrier is overcome, hospitals can implement fully baked solutions to optimize operations.
Hospitals have been important sites of care for two main reasons: economies of scale — reducing the unit cost of care delivery through asset utilization and economies of scope — and using various capabilities and expertise to bend the cost curve and respond to patient variance. But as care delivery has advanced, the impact of economies of scale and scope has diminished. Scale no longer requires being everything to everyone. Likewise, scope needs are lessened through the ability to manage risk and reliance on more precise diagnoses.
The current inpatient model is capital- and staff-intensive and therefore expensive. It also is not always the safest or most consumer-friendly place to be treated, the report states. Patient preferences and logistics may make being at home the optimal site of care and the authors predict care settings will shift dramatically over the next decade.
Coming tech advances will lessen the need for inpatient admissions for certain conditions and surgical procedures. Shifts in care protocols, including minimally invasive procedures and improved rehabilitation techniques, will accelerate this transition.
Expect retail clinic settings to have an impact in this area with their easy accessibility, lower cost structure and a strong focus on preventive care.
The most disruptive transition between now and 2035 could come in this area. The authors project that 64% of inpatient admissions could be moved to the home by 2035, enabled by both improved therapeutics and more effective virtual care.
At-home care has limitations. Shifting out of an inpatient setting is not feasible for high-risk situations or overly invasive procedures. And not everything that is available to move to the home should, the report states.
The overall infrastructure still isn’t robust enough to match the potential transition. Only about 40% of U.S. homes were considered to have the most basic aging-ready features, according to a 2023 Census Bureau report, and large areas of rural America, as well as some inner cities, still lack access to broadband. Still, significant growth could occur in the home care setting.