Legislative Committee Update: Primary Elections

By Adam Burklund, TFCA Legislative Consultant, Burklund Consulting

Main Takeaways 

These primaries were a win for the far-right wing of the Republican Party overall. While they didn’t sweep, they made significant gains relative to previous election cycles.

Speaker Dade Phelan was unable to win reelection in his home district outright and will head to a runoff. This could spell trouble for his speakership, even if he’s able to win the runoff in May. This may be the biggest win for the far-right wing of the Republican Party this election cycle and sends a message to centrist Republicans.

Six of the 21 incumbent Republican House members that Governor Abbott targeted based on their private school vouchers vote lost their elections outright and four are going to runoffs. Another six won outright and will move on to the general election and five others are retiring. It appears that the hundreds of thousands of dollars Abbott spent against some of these incumbents was effective. However, he made many enemies in the House who will return next session.

Attorney General Ken Paxton’s endorsement record in the House was: 12 wins, 22 losses, 13 runoffs and a couple of races not yet called. He also ousted three incumbent judges on the Court of Criminal Appeals. This is probably an overall win for Paxton who had little to lose by making those endorsements.

Eight incumbent House members will head to runoffs, with a couple of races not yet called. It appears the seat held for decades by Democrat and former Dean John Whitmire will also go to a runoff. Retiring Senator Drew Springer’s seat in North Texas will see a runoff between Brent Hagenbuch (supported by Abbott and Patrick) and Jace Yarbrough.

Senator Nathan Johnson defeated a challenge by Representative Victoria Neave and will not face a Republican challenger in the general election. Ted Cruz will face Democrat Colin Allread in the general election.

For TFCA, these results mean we will have new legislators to get to know and to educate on our priorities. We’ll have to wait and see how extreme the new House members will be but the overall message here is that the populist Republicans are gaining power, even if only marginally. The uncertainty surrounding the speakership also puts committees and chairmanships into question.

Political Overview

While Republicans hold every statewide seat and a majority in both chambers of the Legislature, infighting within the Republican Party in Texas has hit a new high. Governor Abbott has been attacking incumbent Republican House members, mostly from rural districts, who opposed his private school vouchers legislation last session. Attorney General Ken Paxton has been attacking (mainly) Republican House members who supported his impeachment last session. Lt. Governor Dan Patrick has been attacking Republican House members who opposed him on various issues or whose politics don’t algin with his.

What we’re seeing this election cycle, with regard to statewide Republican officeholders endorsing challengers to incumbent Republican legislators, is unprecedented. However, the more important questions leading up to this primary have been:

1. How effective will those endorsements be?
2. Will any of those statewide elected officials actually spend any money against incumbents?

Impact of Endorsements

Not all races have been called at the time of this writing. Governor Abbott, Lt. Governor Patrick and Attorney General Paxton all made numerous endorsements, often in conflict with each other.

Abbott

Abbott endorsed all incumbent Republican House members that supported his voucher initiative, so a count of overall endorsement wins and losses for him is not terribly insightful. In races where he made an endorsement against an incumbent and spent significant money supporting challengers, he was fairly effective. He was less effective in races where he did not endorse an incumbent but also didn’t spend a significant amount. Abbott probably won enough of these races to claim a win overall.  

Patrick

Patrick made fewer endorsements and mostly supported incumbents. His record was 20 wins, three losses, and three heading to runoffs. It’s notable that his preferred Senate candidate, Brent Hagenbuch, did not win outright and Representative Morgan Meyer will return (assuming he can win in the general election) after Patrick took a strong stand against him. The fact that Speaker Phelan is now in a runoff is an apparent win for Patrick, though it’s not a guarantee that a change in speakership will help him on legislative issues.

Paxton

Sixty of the 86 then-sitting Republicans in the House voted in support of the impeachment of Attorney General Paxton. Paxton endorsed 46 House candidates and only three of those were incumbents. While he didn’t spend any money in support of candidates, he did travel to many of their districts to actively campaign. Twelve of Paxton’s endorsed candidates won, including all three incumbents. Three others he supported will head to runoffs. Overall, this is probably a win for Paxton as it may provide him at least some additional support in the House, where he will definitely face headwinds next session on any priority legislation as well as getting his agency budget approved. He had little to lose by making his various endorsements, unlike the Governor.

Campaign Spending

Governor Abbott spent just over $6M supporting and opposing candidates. Nearly $4.5M of that was spent opposing Republican House incumbents. Specifically, Glenn Rogers (R-Mineral Wells) High Shine (R-Belton), Steve Allison (R-San Antonio), Gary VanDeaver (R-New Boston), Drew Darby (R-San Angelo), Earnest Bailes (R-Shepherd), and John Kuempel (R-Seguin) were on the receiving end of most of those funds in the form of opposition ad buys. The candidates benefiting from those expenditures (those challenging Republican incumbents) raised little money elsewhere. All of this follows a $6M contribution that Abbott received from an out-of-state voucher supporter earlier this year.

While Attorney General Paxton and Lt. Governor Patrick both made endorsements and spent time stumping for candidates, Paxton spent no money and Patrick spent very little, if any.

Outside groups spent significantly as well. Texans for Lawsuit Reform, which generally supports more moderate, business-friendly candidates, spent $6.5M. Two West Texas oil billionaires that have become a staple in support of the far right spent over $2.5M, mostly against those in the House that supported Paxton’s impeachment. The Charles E. Butt Public Education PAC spent over $1M to support House GOP incumbents that opposed vouchers. Other organizations supporting vouchers spent over $1.6M. These numbers don’t account for all expenditures but give a picture of the increasing cost to participate effectively in a state house race. They also indicate more entrenchment within the factions of the Republican Party.

Election Results

Senate

There were three primary races of interest in the Senate. The first was in SD 30, where Senator Drew Springer (R-Munster) is retiring. The four-way race included two challengers with notable backing: Brent Haugenbuch, who had the backing of Lt. Governor Patrick and the powerful Texans for Lawsuit Reform, and Carrie de Moor, who was backed by AG Paxton. Haugenbuch will face Jace Yarborough in a runoff.

On the Democratic side, incumbent Senator Nathan Johnson (D-Dallas) defended his SD 16 seat against Dallas Representative Victoria Neave Criado (D-Dallas) and defeated her by a substantial margin. This race was unique in that, on the Democratic side of the aisle, we have not seen many sitting legislators attempting to move up the ladder by challenging other incumbent Democrats. Many Capitol insiders were conflicted as they have supported both candidates in the past but felt pressure to choose a side. Senator Johnson was the favorite and has built a reputation for working with various industries and stakeholders, which helped him significantly outraise Representative Neave.

A five-way race to replace outgoing Senator (now Houston Mayor) John Whitmire also favored a current House member, Representative Jarvis Johnson (D-Houston). That race has not been called but appears to also be heading to a runoff between Jarvis Johnson and Molly Cook.

House

The most critical race in the House was that of Speaker Dade Phelan (R-Beaumont) in his own home district. With a massive amount of money spent, active opposition from Attorney General Paxton, Lt. Governor Patrick, and an endorsement of his opponent by former President Donald Trump, the questions have been whether Phelan would win outright or end up in a runoff and by what margin. A loss would be a significant blow to the centrist wing of the Republican Party and a marginal victory could imperil his speakership. As noted, Phelan now faces a runoff, which means a low-turnout election in late May. No doubt the backroom discussions about potential speaker candidates are already happening.

Governor Abbott’s Campaign Against Anti-Voucher Republicans

The following are the 21, mostly rural, Republican House members that voted against the Governor’s private school vouchers legislation:

• Allison – San Antonio (Lost)
• Bailes – Shepherd (Lost)
• Bell, Keith – Forney (Won)
• Burns – Cleburne (Runoff)
• Clardy – Nacogdoches (Lost)
• Darby – San Angelo (Won)
• Dean – Longview (Won)
• Geren – Ft. Worth (Won)
• Raney – College Station (retiring)
• Holland – Rockwall (Runoff)
• Kacal – Bryan (retiring)
• King, Ken – Canadian (Won)
• Kuempel – Seguin (Runoff)
• Lambert – Abilene (Won)
• Murr – Junction (retiring)
• Price – Amarillo (retiring)
• Rogers – Mineral Wells (Lost)
• Shine – Temple (Lost)
• Smith – Sherman (Lost)
• Thompson, Ed – Pearland (retiring)
• VanDeaver – New Boston (Runoff)

The change in rural Republican seats resulting from the Governor’s involvement in campaigns could push the House further to the right but that’s yet to be determined. Those will still be rural legislators and Abbott endorsed essentially on a single issue. With little likelihood of Democrats losing many seats in the general election, these primary wins will not boost the far-right into the majority, and Democrats are still likely to play a key role in any speaker election.

One fairly high-profile race has been HD 2 (Greenville) following the removal of former Rep. Bryan Slayton from office by the House. Jill Dutton, the candidate supported by the centrist wing of the Republican Party, narrowly won the race to finish out the remainder of Slayton’s term. However, Brent Money (who is supported by Abbott, Patrick, and Paxton) was able to win this round.

Court of Criminal Appeals

Attorney General Paxton targeted three incumbent justices on the Court of Criminal Appeals, the highest criminal court in the state. He contends that the court declined to provide him authority to prosecute voter fraud, but the Court ruled that the Constitution prohibits it. All three of the incumbent justices opposed by Paxton lost their primaries yesterday.