The 2025 Virginia General Assembly Session begins on January 7th, and lawmakers will once again confront the state’s housing issues, including concerns about evictions and rental stability. Despite the pervasive fear of an “evictions tsunami” in recent years, recent data compiled by the Apartment and Office Building Association (AOBA) presents a much more positive and nuanced picture of Virginia’s eviction landscape. Contrary to widespread fears, eviction rates in the Commonwealth remain extremely low, and the vast majority of eviction cases are resolved without the need for forced evictions. However, the persistent issue of housing affordability remains a significant challenge, as rising living costs and limited availability of affordable units continue to put pressure on renters, particularly those in low-income brackets.
A Clearer Picture: Low Eviction Rates in Virginia
Between July 1, 2023, and June 30, 2024, there were 102,532 unlawful detainer filings in Virginia. However, only 22,177 of those filings resulted in actual evictions, representing just 21.6% of cases. This means that nearly 80% of eviction filings did not lead to evictions, suggesting that most conflicts between tenants and landlords are resolved amicably—often through mediation, payment plans, or other forms of negotiation. This is a testament to the effectiveness of programs designed to resolve housing disputes outside the courtroom and points to the potential for broader, community-driven solutions to housing stability.
Moreover, the numbers show that eviction is a rare event for most renters. Less than 1% of renters—approximately 0.8%—were affected by eviction filings in the past year. This translates to just 2% of renter households in Virginia. With more than 1 million renter households across the state, these figures suggest that, for the overwhelming majority of Virginians, eviction is an outlier rather than a daily threat.
Persistent Income Instability: The Root Cause of Evictions
When examining the data more closely, it becomes clear that the vast majority of evictions in Virginia are not the result of short-term or isolated crises, but by long-term financial instability. According to Eviction Lab, approximately 98% of evictions in Virginia stem from persistent income shocks, rather than temporary setbacks like job loss or medical emergencies. This points to a broader systemic issue: that eviction is often the culmination of ongoing financial struggles, many of which are tied to larger issues of income inequality and housing affordability.
For many Virginia renters, particularly those in low-income brackets, keeping up with rent payments is a constant challenge. This chronic financial stress, rather than one-time crises, drives most eviction cases. Addressing these underlying issues will require comprehensive solutions that go beyond temporary fixes and address the root causes of housing insecurity, such as wage stagnation and the rising cost of living.
The Need for Affordable Housing Stock
A significant driver of housing instability in Virginia is the lack of affordable housing. With 2.7 million renters in the state and a growing demand for affordable housing options, Virginia must make the development of new housing stock a top priority. This includes providing tax incentives for developers to build more affordable units and working to reduce construction and insurance costs. The lack of affordable housing is not a temporary problem; it is a structural issue that will require sustained investment, planning, and innovative policy solutions.
The Limits of "Sound Bite" Solutions: Rent Stabilization
Some lawmakers have proposed rent stabilization policies as a quick fix for housing instability. While these policies might seem appealing, evidence shows that they fail to address the root causes of housing affordability. In cities like Chicago, Portland, Denver, Seattle, and others, rent control policies have exacerbated housing issues by discouraging new construction, reducing the quality of existing units, and creating a false sense of security for a limited number of renters – leaving the broader renting population out of the market. Rent stabilization, while offering short-term relief to a few, does not solve the deeper issues of income inequality and the lack of affordable housing.
A Focus on Long-Term Solutions
Over the past five years, Virginia has passed more than 60 laws designed to regulate landlord-tenant interactions and offer short-term assistance to renters at risk of eviction. However, these efforts have only reached a small fraction of the affected population. Last year, just 444 renters received support through these policies. As the General Assembly convenes, lawmakers must prioritize its resources on policies that address these deeper structural issues. Both the Virginia Apartment Management Association and the Apartment and Office Building Association of Metropolitan Washington are working closely with legislators and other stakeholders in the rental housing sector to promote state-level policies that tackle the underlying causes of housing instability.
By focusing on long-term investments in affordable housing, expanding rental assistance programs, and addressing the root causes of financial instability, Virginia can build a housing market that works for everyone, ensuring a more stable and secure future for both renters and housing providers.