Takeaways from Virginia's Primaries: A Few Ousted Incumbents, Key Matchups Set.
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Virginia Primaries are now complete, and now we focus on who will win in November.
Virginia is currently politically divided (Republicans control the House and Democrats control the Senate), and its unusual off-year legislative elections typically draw outsized national attention as a possible barometer of voter sentiment heading into the next year's midterm or presidential cycle.
Here is a look at some of the key takeaways from Tuesday's results and what's ahead:
HISTORIC TURNOVER
We all knew before Tuesday night’s primaries that the General Assembly was headed for massive turnover, driven by a bipartisan redistricting process. The defeat of a handful of incumbents on Tuesday will only add to that turnover. In the 40-member Senate, for example, at least 15 members will be new. According to an analysis by the nonpartisan Virginia Public Access Project, the number of state senators ousted Tuesday — five — equaled the number of all Senators who had lost a primary election since 1999.
REPUBLICANS & DEMOCRATS OUST THE MOST FIREBRAND INCUMBENTS
All of Governor Youngkins Republican endorsements won – perhaps that was considered not too much of a stretch, as VTCA’s PAC endorsements on the House side won election. Del. Tara Durant (Fredericksburg) defeated restaurateur Matt Strickland in the red-leaning Fredericksburg-area Senate seat. Del. Emily Brewer (Southside) defeated former NASCAR driver Hermie Sadler, who criticized her as excessively moderate, for the nomination in another competitive Senate seat.
A few surprises were Del. Dave LaRock (Winchester), considered the lead in an open, eight-way Shenandoah Valley-based Senate seat, but lost to farmer Timmy French. Senator Amanda Chase lost a close three-way race to former State Senator Glen Sturtevant in the Chesterfield area.
Democrats faced more primaries this cycle and ended up with more turnover, including the ouster of several of the Senate's more moderate members. Democrat Senate incumbents Joe Morrissey (Richmond), George Barker (Fairfax), Lionell Spruill (Hampton/Norfolk) and Chap Petersen (Fairfax) were all defeated. None of these losses were a serious shock, except the margin of the loss by Chap Petersen considering he out spent his opponent 6-1 was. Senator Jeremy McPike (Woodbridge) narrowly won his primary. One Democrat moderate, Creigh Deeds (Charlottesville) defeated progressive Democrat Sally Hudson.
Key to remember that most primary results – even the upsets, most legislative districts - will not change party hands come November.
Now it’s up to VTCA’s members to get the message out to all the candidates that sustainable transportation funding is crucial for future economic prosperity and safety for all Virginia communities.
