November 3, 2021
Submitted by Robert Bohannon, Director of Government Affairs at Hunton Andrews Kurth LLP.
The Red Wave Election night has brought a seismic shift of the partisan alignment in the Commonwealth. As of the writing of this document, it appears that in an election with record breaking turnout, Republicans have won their first statewide election since 2009 (as was the case twelve years ago, when Republicans swept all three statewide offices). Republicans have also won six seats and will take a narrow 52-48 majority in the House of Delegates pending review and potential recounts in several contests.
How Did We Get Here? Nothing Good is Coming Out of Washington and Virginia Democrats did not get any help from across the Potomac during this election cycle. President Biden’s abysmal approval rating, coupled with congressional Democrats’ inability prior to election day to pass a bipartisan infrastructure package, fueled a strong narrative of dysfunction that helped create a tail wind for Republican candidates. Additionally, the absolutely brutal (and seemingly never ending) negative press stories that began in August with Afghanistan and continued through the fall with COVID-19, immigration, inflation, and supply chain challenges began adversely impacting Democratic candidates’ polling numbers.
Donald Trump was not on the ballot and voters noticed! A number of Democratic candidates worked hard to tie their respective Republican opponents to former President Donald Trump (R). The strategy simply did not work. While Trump may be unpopular in certain areas in Virginia, but voters noticed he was not on the ballot and was not in the White House. Most Republican candidates in contested races avoided embracing Trump (but they also did not disavow him), which allowed these candidates to keep the Republican base intact and not alienate more Independent-minded voters.
Motivated voters! An enthusiastic electorate is, more often than not, able to win. This was certainly the case over the last several election cycles when anger with President Trump was at a fever pitch, and that anger drove Democrats to the polls and helped drive electoral success for Virginia Democrats. Tonight, the anger directed at the dysfunction in Washington coupled with genuine discontent over a number of education related issues (from Critical Race Theory to school safety and questions regarding parental engagement in schools) helped to not only consolidate 2 and motivate the Republican base, but also attract Independent-leaning voters to the Republican column. The education issue has been particularly dynamic. Recent polling indicated that voters disproportionately trust Republicans when it comes to issues related to education, which has historically been a source of strength for Democrats. The anger, and the voter enthusiasm it created, seems to have been a more effective driver of turnout (and of record-breaking turnout) for Republican statewide candidates.
Statewide Races Governor
Republican Glenn Youngkin leveraged incredibly strong support in rural localities and suburban communities throughout the Commonwealth, while limiting losses in the Northern Virginia suburbs to defeat Democrat Terry McAuliffe with a surprisingly strong 51% of the vote (as of the writing of this memo) in what is the most expensive gubernatorial race in Virginia history. Youngkin’s victory represents Republicans first statewide win since former Governor Bob McDonnell (R) captured the executive branch in 2009, and is certain to force a discussion of just how blue the Commonwealth of Virginia is. The strength of Youngkin’s performance in nearly every corner of the Commonwealth created coattails that helped sweep Republican House candidates to victory (these coattails were evident in rural localities as well as certain suburban districts in Hampton Roads).
Governor-Elect Youngkin, as both a political newcomer and an outsider, will be building the first Republican administration in twelve years.
Lieutenant Governor Winsome Sears - Governor-Elect Youngkin also provided coattails to statewide ticket-mates, particularly in the race for lieutenant governor. Republican Winsome Sears defeated Delegate Hala Ayala (D-Prince William) with 51% (as of the writing of this memo) of the vote to become the first woman of color elected statewide in the Commonwealth. Sears last held elected office 15 years ago when she served one term in the House of Delegates representing Norfolk. As lieutenant governor, Sears will preside over the closely divided Senate (Democrats hold a razor-thin 21-19 majority), but perhaps most importantly she could be the tiebreaking vote on a number of controversial issues (including abortion and LGBTQ+ rights). Sears is the first Republican lieutenant governor since former Lieutenant Governor Bill Bolling (R) was elected in 2009.
Attorney General Delegate Jason Miyares (R-Virginia Beach) defeated two-term incumbent Attorney General Mark Herring with 51% of the vote, as of the writing of this memo. Miyares focused almost exclusively on law-and-order related issues, particularly those surrounding the Virginia Parole Board and inmates who were granted early release only to commit violent crimes upon their release. Miyares’ law and order message resonated strongly in both the rural and many suburban areas. Miyares is the first Republican attorney general in Virginia since former Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli (R) was elected in 2009.
The House of Delegates. As of the writing of this memo, Republicans have gained seven seats and have retaken the majority after one election cycle in the minority.
Below is a brief analysis along with some of the salient themes from the key House races:
Money Matters. In every competitive House district, Democrats outraised their Republican opponents – doubling or even tripling Republican fundraising totals. This was largely due to hefty donations from organized labor, teachers' unions, and Clean Virginia. It is likely that Republicans would have been on their way to a much bigger night if they had the ability to close the fundraising gap in many of the competitive races.
Republicans Did Not Lose Any of Their Incumbents or Open Seats Democrats felt that they had an opportunity to flip three Republican held seats, and despite outraising their Republican challengers, these Democratic candidates were defeated easily. Delegate Roxann Robinson (R-Chesterfield) defeated Democrat Debra Gardner with 55% of the vote, Republican Mike Cherry won the 66th District, which was an open seat due to the retirement of Delegate Kirk Cox (R-Colonial Heights) by approximately sixteen points, and Delegate Glenn Davis (R-Virginia Beach) crushed Democrat Kim Melnyk with 56% of the vote.
Republicans Control Rural Virginia. House Republicans identified two rural districts, one in Southwest Virginia and the other in Southside Virginia along the North Carolina border, as two of the best pick up opportunities in 2021. On Election Day, their candidates delivered. In House District 12 (Giles County, Radford, and parts of Montgomery and Pulaski Counties) Republican Jason Ballard easily defeated Delegate Chris Hurst (D-Montgomery) 55%-44%. The night before the election, Hurst was pulled over in Radford when a woman exited a car he was driving and vandalized campaigns signs. He was cited for driving on a suspended license, which became headline news on Election Day. Ballard attacked Hurst during the campaign for a January 2021 incident where Hurst was pulled over in Christiansburg on suspicion of drunk driving, and was allowed to leave the scene without a charge because he had a sober companion in the vehicle. In House District 75 (Brunswick, Greensville, Southampton, and Sussex Counties, Emporia, Franklin City, and part of Lunenberg County) Delegate Roslyn Tyler (D-Sussex) was defeated by Republican Otto Wachsmann in a rematch of their 2019 contest. Wachsmann won this race by six points. Delegate Tyler has served in the Virginia General Assembly since 2006 and most recently chaired the House Education Committee. The House Democratic Caucus invested over $800,000 into Tyler’s race this cycle, which allowed her to double Wachsmann’s fundraising total.
5 Republicans Make Serious Gains in Suburban Districts. After the rural districts, Republicans targeted Democrats representing largely suburban communities in the Metro Richmond area as well as the outer Northern Virginia suburbs and Hampton Roads. Of those nine targeted seats, Republicans picked up four, including:
Some Democrats Survive the Red Wave. Despite the gains made on Election Day by Republicans, Democrats did hold some competitive seats, including: